Moldovan early parliamentary election 28 Nov 10

Q A: Moldovan early parliamentary election 28 Nov 10

Background briefing by BBC Monitoring on 15 November

On 28 November 2010, Moldova holds its third parliamentary election in less than two years after the latest two parliaments have failed to elect a president.

What is the background to the election?

Moldova’s last election on 29 July 2009 was won by the pro-Western four-member Alliance for European Integration, which ended the eight-year rule of the Communist Party. That poll followed the street violence caused by the Communist victory in an earlier general election in April.

Both parliaments failed to gather the requisite number of votes to elect the president and, therefore, had to be dissolved.

In an attempt to avoid such stalemates in the future, a referendum to introduce direct presidential elections was held in September 2010, but collapsed due to low turnout.

How does the system work?

The 101-seat unicameral parliament is elected for four years by proportional representation through direct ballot.

Parties secure seats in parliament if they win at least 4 per cent of the vote (the threshold was 5 per cent in the 29 July 2009 election and 6 per cent in the 5 April election). Independent candidates need 2 per cent to succeed. No blocs of parties, which have a higher barrier to clear, are standing in this election.

The ban on holding dual citizenship to run for parliament, as well as for members of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC), has now been removed. The ruling alliance has also abolished the post-election proportional distribution of the seats of the losing parties, which previously favoured the largest faction, but now gives an equal number of seats to each of the parties elected. The Communist Party has appealed against the move in the Constitutional Court.

What about the voters?

The constitution requires a minimum turnout of 33 per cent on polling day, otherwise providing for a repeat election within a fortnight.

According to the CEC, there were 2,662,052 eligible voters for the September constitutional referendum, and 2,603,158 for the 29 July 2009 parliamentary election.

Polling stations will be open from 0700 to 2100 (0500-1900 gmt). Voters must be Moldovan citizens aged 18 years or above.

Will the election be held abroad?

A total of 75 polling stations will be opened abroad, including 40 outside Moldova’s diplomatic missions, mainly in Italy, Portugal, Spain, Russia and France. The opposition Communist Party has criticized the move, fearing vote-rigging.

According to unofficial data, the number of Moldovans working abroad is as high as one million. In the 5 April 2009 parliamentary election, over 16,400 Moldovans (1.05 per cent of the people who voted) cast their ballots abroad. In the September plebiscite, around 20,000 people voted abroad.

Will the breakaway Dniester region participate in the voting?

As before, no polling stations will open on Dniester territory because, as Dniester foreign minister Vladimir Yastrebchak said, “Chisinau made no requests.” Yet he said that Moldovan citizens living in the region will be free to cast their ballots in Moldova-run areas adjacent to the Dniester region. There are over 250,000 Moldovans in the Dniester region, according to its official website Olvia-press.

The region’s official media provided moderate coverage of the election campaign. Olvia-press said that the election will be “tough and uncompromising” and that Moldova has always been a “training ground for testing smear campaigns”.

For their part, opposition media have called on Dniester residents with Moldovan passports to vote actively. The Novaya Gazeta weekly has said that Dniester people should vote against pro-Romanian forces in Moldova to stop “Romania’s expansion” and prevent a repetition of the 1992 conflict.

The opposition Dniester Communist Party has voiced support for the Communist Party of Moldova, which, according to the Dniester Communists, stands every chance of returning to power and “re-establishing order in the republic”.

Who is running and what are their chances?

The CEC has registered 40 candidates, including 20 parties and 20 independent candidates. Of them, only four contenders – the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, and the opposition Communist Party – are widely expected to make it to the new parliament.

Opinion polls conducted in late October and early November showed that the Communist Party would gain 35-39 per cent, the Liberal Democratic Party 19-21 per cent, the Democratic Party 12-19 per cent and the Liberal Party 11-13 per cent.

According to one poll, the junior coalition party Our Moldova Alliance will fail to enter the new parliament while, according to another poll, it will win 6.5 per cent of the vote.

The Humanist Party led by Valeriu Pasat, former defence minister and ex-security service chief, is the only non-parliamentary party that, according to an opinion poll, will clear the 4 per cent mark.

What are the post-election scenarios?

As no party is expected to gain enough votes to elect government bodies on its own, a new ruling coalition is likely to be formed. The member parties of the current Alliance for European Integration are generally expected to create a new coalition.

The Liberal Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have said they will not accept a coalition with the Communists. Democratic Party leader Marian Lupu has not ruled out “an extended coalition” with the Communist Party “in order to meet the interests of the country”.

On the other hand, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Prime Minister Vlad Filat, has said that if the coalition parties fail to win a total of 61 seats needed to elect the president, they will have to cooperate with the Communists to put an end to the long-lasting political stalemate.

The Communist Party, which is set to win the most votes, says that it will not speak about possible coalition scenarios until after the election.

What are the main issues?

With Moldova often being described as the poorest country in Europe, all potential successful candidates pledge to alleviate poverty, ensure economic growth, increase salaries and pensions, and solve the 20-year conflict with the rebel Dniester region. All member parties of the ruling alliance, except perhaps the Democratic Party, have built their electoral platforms on anti-Communism, blaming the former authorities for all Moldova’s problems. For its part, the Communist Party puts the emphasis on the ruling alliance’s “failures” during its one-and-a-half years in power and highlights its own social, economic and political successes achieved in 2001-09.

What about candidates’ foreign policy?

All four member parties of the ruling coalition strongly back Moldova’s integration into the EU, advocate good relations with neighbouring Romania and Ukraine, but have slightly different approaches to relations with Russia.

While the right-wing Liberal Party, headed by acting President Mihai Ghimpu, pursues an almost open anti-Russian policy, Prime Minister Vlad Filat’s Liberal Democratic Party insists on a good and “pragmatic” partnership with Russia.

In the ruling alliance, Marian Lupu’s Democratic Party seems to be the most Russia-orientated. It has even managed to sign a cooperation agreement with Russia’s ruling One Russia party.

For its part, the opposition Communist Party, which won the 2005 election on a pro-European platform, does not even mention this issue in its current electoral programme.

The Communists have since repeatedly accused EU bodies of double standards, while Communist Party leader Vladimir Voronin has said that Moldova’s “genuine modernization is only possible on the basis of a new project of post-Soviet integration”.

What about EU, Russian influence?

Unlike in previous elections, the EU has openly announced its support for the ruling alliance. In the run-up to the campaign, a large number of EU ministers and commissioners visited Moldova to encourage the ruling alliance to stay united during and after the race.

Russia has refrained from making open statements in support of one or another political force. Yet commenting on visits to Moscow by Communist leader Vladimir Voronin and Democrat leader Marian Lupu, political analysts have noted that Moscow has decided to back several political forces in Moldova’s election, to make sure that at least one of them makes it to parliament and a future ruling coalition, thus allowing the Kremlin to have a say in Moldovan politics.

Who will monitor the polls?

As of 15 November, the CEC had registered over 1,800 local observers representing various NGOs and political parties, and about 50 international observers. The largest number of international observers, 35 long-term observers and 200 short-term observers, are expected to be dispatched by the OSCE. Just like before, this election will be monitored by two coalitions: Coalition-2010, which is seen as pro-Western and pro-government, and the Civic Control-Election 2010 coalition, which is seen as pro-opposition.

What of media coverage?

The Moldovan media market is said to have become much more open, free and democratic since the pro-Western alliance came to power in July 2009. First and foremost, some visible changes have taken place at the Teleradio-Moldova public company, which was in the past accused of pursuing a strong pro-Communist line.

According to the latest monitoring reports, Teleradio-Moldova has significantly improved its editorial policy, covering the electoral campaign “almost perfectly in line with legislation”. This opinion, however, is not shared by the opposition Communist Party, which says that public radio and television openly support the ruling coalition.

Over the past year, two private news-based TV channels, Publika TV and Jurnal TV, have entered Moldova’s media market, while the Prime TV channel broadcasting nationwide on the frequency of Russia’s Channel One has launched its own local news programme. All these channels, along with the older TV channels ProTV and TV7, have been relatively objective in their coverage of the campaign.

The private channel NIT is the only television that openly supports the Communist Party. It has repeatedly been warned by the national broadcasting media watchdog CCA for “defying the principle of pluralism and impartiality in its news reports”. The channel has denied the accusations, saying that the authorities are trying to close “the only source of alternative information in Moldova”.

Most major radio and TV channels host election debates. Under the media coverage rules, all the parties should get the same amount of airtime on both radio and TV.

The CEC has been using both traditional media and social networks to promote the election and prevent a low voter turnout. It has even produced several music video clips inviting youths to cast their ballots.